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FBO: AFC West salary-cap analysis
The pressure is on for key players to justify their contracts
Comment Email Print Share  By J.I. Halsell
Football Outsiders
Archive Over the next few weeks, Football Outsiders will look at the salary cap of each NFL team, division by division -- including the player under the greatest pressure to live up to his salary-cap number in 2009. Today, we look at the AFC West and NFC West.
 Getty ImagesIs Graham an elite tight end? He's paid like one.
DENVER BRONCOS
2009 Salary Cap: $131,873,177
Player with Highest Cap Number: CB Champ Bailey ($13,688,525; 10.4 percent of cap)
Highest Cap Number for a Player No Longer with Club: CB Dre' Bly ($9,450,000; 7.2 percent of cap; second-highest on club)
Player Who Has to Live Up to Cap Number: TE Daniel Graham ($6,650,000; 5.0 percent of cap; fourth-highest on club)
When Graham signed with the Broncos as an unrestricted free agent, his contract made him the second-highest-paid tight end in football (on a per-year basis) at $6 million a season. At the time, the only tight end ahead of him was Tony Gonzalez, at $6.25 million per year. Currently, Graham remains one of the highest-paid tight ends in football and has the second-highest 2009 cap number at his position -- but Graham's name doesn't typically come to mind when observers discuss top-flight tight ends. According to Football Outsiders' advanced DYAR statistics, Graham ranked 20th of 43 tight ends in 2008 who had at least 25 passes thrown their way. With Josh McDaniels' arrival from New England, where Graham started his career, it will be interesting to see whether Graham's familiarity with the offense leads to increased productivity for him in the passing game.
 Getty ImagesCassel must prove that he's a legit QB and not a product of Bill Belichick's system.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2009 Salary Cap: $134,608,249
Player with Highest Cap Number: QB Matt Cassel ($15,207,280; 11.3 percent of cap)
Highest Cap Number for a Player No Longer with Club: TE Tony Gonzalez ($6,007,280; 4.5 percent of cap; third-highest on club)
Player Who Has to Live Up to Cap Number: Cassel
Of the players who switched teams this offseason, there might be no one more scrutinized than Cassel. The obvious challenge for Cassel is to prove he is a legitimate franchise quarterback in this league and deserving of a contract that reflects that status, rather than simply a product of the Bill Belichick system and the talent that surrounded him. Dwayne Bowe and Bobby Engram are no Randy Moss and Wes Welker, so to expect Cassel to put up the same numbers in Kansas City that he did in New England might be slightly unrealistic. However, if the former seventh-round pick can prove to be a leader and guide the Chiefs to more victories this season, he'll be well worth Kansas City's investment.
 Getty ImagesAs if Russell's draft status doesn't place him under enough pressure, Jeff Garcia is now waiting in the wings.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
2009 Salary Cap: $130,311,884
Player with Highest Cap Number: QB JaMarcus Russell ($13,618,215; 10.5 percent of cap)
Highest Cap Number for a Player No Longer with Club: S Gibril Wilson ($7,000,000; 5.4 percent of cap; second-highest on club)
Player Who Has to Live Up to Cap Number: Russell
Thanks to the enormous contracts awarded to players selected No. 1 in the draft, Russell has the seventh-highest cap number among all quarterbacks in 2009. Russell's inflated cap number is simply a byproduct of the current draft system. For their $61 million contractual investment in Russell, the Raiders had a quarterback in 2008 who, according to Football Outsiders' DYAR statistics, ranked 35th of 41 quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes. Playing quarterback in the NFL is naturally a pressure-filled career; however, when you factor in the additional expectations of being the top overall pick in the draft, combined with the presence of an established and still-productive veteran in Jeff Garcia lurking over your shoulder ... well, let's just say it will be interesting to see whether Russell steps up or buckles in 2009.
 Getty ImagesDarren Sproles is hoping his playoff performances will carry over into this season.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
2009 Salary Cap: $129,039,351
Player with Highest Cap Number: QB Philip Rivers ($8,231,630; 6.4 percent of cap)
Highest Cap Number for a Player No Longer with Club: WR Eric Parker ($400,000; 0.3 percent of cap; 48th-highest on club)
Player Who Has to Live Up to Cap Number: RB Darren Sproles ($6,627,630; 5.1 percent of cap; fifth-highest on club)
Sproles will play this season under the guaranteed franchise tender of $6.6 million, and one easily could argue Sproles earned this hefty raise based on two 2008 playoff games. Sproles' 2008 regular-season statistics -- 330 rushing yards at a 5.4 yard clip with 383 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns -- do not seem to justify a franchise tag. You might also be surprised to learn that, in his regular-season career, he has returned only one punt and two kickoffs for touchdowns. However, the 2008 postseason was when Sproles stepped onto the national scene, garnering 328 all-purpose yards in the Chargers' wild-card victory over the Colts and following that performance with 270 all-purpose yards in their divisional loss to the Steelers. Sproles needs to prove he can continue to be an all-purpose wonder in 2009 -- even when the Chargers are playing their weak division foes instead of strong playoff contenders.
J.I. Halsell, a former salary-cap analyst for the Washington Redskins, now covers the salary cap for Football Outsiders.
FBO: NFC West salary-cap analysis
These players' salaries put an extra burden on them to perform
Comment Email Print Share By J.I. Halsell
Football Outsiders
Archive Over the next few weeks, Football Outsiders will look at the salary cap of each NFL team, division by division -- including the player under the greatest pressure to live up to his salary-cap number in 2009. Today, we look at the NFC West and AFC West.
 Getty ImagesCan Warner's arm last another season in Arizona's pass-happy offense?
ARIZONA CARDINALS
2009 salary cap: $127,997,000
Player with highest cap number: QB Kurt Warner ($11,505,720; 9.0 percent of cap)
Highest cap number for a player no longer with club: DE Travis LaBoy ($6,105,720; 4.8 percent of cap; fifth-highest on club)
Player who has to live up to cap number: Warner
Warner put up numbers in 2008 similar to those from his St. Louis \"Greatest Show On Turf\" days. His 4,583 passing yards were the second most of his career, and his 401 completions on 598 pass attempts both were career highs. The challenge for the 38-year-old Warner is whether he can continue to outrun Father Time, particularly if the passing game again makes up the majority of the Cardinals' offense. This offseason, Warner received a well-deserved contract that guarantees him $19 million, but without improved contributions from their running game, the Cardinals might have a difficult time getting full value for their investment in Warner.
 Getty ImagesThis could be Little's last season in St. Louis.
ST. LOUIS RAMS
2009 salary cap: $129,796,813
Player with highest cap number: QB Marc Bulger ($8,507,280; 6.6 percent of cap)
Highest cap number for a player no longer with club: WR Drew Bennett ($5,000,000; 3.9 percent of cap; 10th-highest on club)
Player who has to live up to cap number: DE Leonard Little ($7,616,760; 5.9 percent of cap; second-highest on club)
Bulger definitely deserves strong consideration for the player on the Rams who most needs to live up to his cap number. In 2008, according to Football Outsiders' advanced DYAR statistics, Bulger ranked 38th in value out of 41 quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes. However, Bulger can blame some of that performance on the injury-wracked offensive line in front of him.
Little might have a harder time blaming injured teammates for his loss of effectiveness. He had 13 sacks back in 2006, but the veteran defensive end has been able to garner only a total of seven over the past two seasons and has seen his role on the defense diminish. As Little enters his 12th season in the NFL (all in St. Louis), he also enters the final year of his contract; this very well could be Little's swan song in a Rams uniform.
 Getty ImagesStaley's contract could serve as a benchmark for negotiations with Patrick Willis this year.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
2009 salary cap: $142,888,353
Player with highest cap number: LT Joe Staley ($13,527,280; 9.5 percent of cap)
Highest cap number for a player no longer with club: RT Jonas Jennings ($3,454,000; 2.4 percent of cap; 11th-highest on club)
Player who has to live up to cap number: Staley
This offseason, Staley signed a six-year contract extension, signifying the Niners' commitment to the third-year player. Of Staley's 2009 cap number, $12.21 million represents part of the bonus money he earned in the new deal. In the subsequent years of his contract, his cap number isn't scheduled to exceed $6.775 million; therefore, his cap numbers are significantly more manageable beyond this year. However, it will be interesting to see whether Staley can indeed live up to the expectations the Niners have for him. Stats LLC ranked him eighth among tackles in sacks given up last year (8.5) and 11th in 2007 (9.0). Staley's contract also is of interest because it shows that the Niners are willing to extend the contracts of young players. In 2007, Staley was the Niners' second first-round pick, after Pro Bowl middle linebacker Patrick Willis. In light of the Staley deal, it will be interesting to see whether the Niners hand Willis an extension during the Pro Bowler's third season.
 Getty ImagesBranch has been a bust in Seattle.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
2009 salary cap: $129,626,771
Player with highest cap number: LT Walter Jones ($9,806,240; 7.6 percent of cap)
Highest cap number for a player no longer with club: LB Julian Peterson ($4,600,000; 3.5 percent of cap; seventh-highest on club)
Player who has to live up to cap number: WR Deion Branch ($7,546,240; 5.8 percent of cap; third-highest on club)
Branch is entering his fourth campaign with the Seahawks and hasn't come close to what the Seahawks expected to receive when they acquired him from the Patriots. In his career, only once has Branch played in 16 games in a season (2005 in New England, his final season there), and he has never topped 80 receptions or 1,000 yards receiving in a season. Injuries have long hampered Branch's career, and now with the arrival of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Branch is going to have a difficult time justifying a salary equivalent to that of a No. 1 wideout.
J.I. Halsell, a former salary-cap analyst for the Washington Redskins, now covers the salary cap for Football Outsiders. |
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