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[德州人] 休斯顿德州人2016赛季休战期大楼(第XVII期:DeAndre Hopkins, 值一份超级合同?)

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发表于 2016-3-10 16:47 来自手机 | 显示全部楼层
感觉弄好了是又一个酋长,也不错了
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发表于 2016-3-11 00:17 | 显示全部楼层
弱弱的问一下Nuk是谁啊??Hopkins??
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 楼主| 发表于 2016-3-11 07:51 来自手机 | 显示全部楼层
TB最牛B 发表于 2016-3-11 00:17
弱弱的问一下Nuk是谁啊??Hopkins??

是的。。
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发表于 2016-3-11 10:35 | 显示全部楼层
football outsider马上做了一个Osweiler的录像分析,分析的全都是他的缺点:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com ... room-brock-osweiler
好像没怎么提到优点...

个人感觉这个网站并不喜欢德州人,之前做的Hopkins的分析也把他说得一无是处,结论是Hopkins是个大刷子,连Allen Robinson都不如。。。
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发表于 2016-3-11 17:54 | 显示全部楼层
Tony Bergstrom two-year Texans deal $5.75 million, $750,000 bonus, $1.5M gted, salaries $1.125M (gtd), $2.625M (gtd for injury at signing)

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) March 11, 2016


Tony Bergstron due $750,000 roster bonus on April 18, $15,625 per game active roster bonus annually, up to $250,000

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) March 11, 2016
Bergstrom还算便宜,合同也不长,同时也说明他也只是个轮换,选秀肯定会选OL的球员(Duane Brown也老了,刚受过大伤)
另外有人说德州人阵中两个可以和Watt在训练中抗衡的球员,一个是Brown,一个是Brooks,现在一个走了,一个伤了,而Osweiler如103楼那篇文章说的,压力下传球有问题,那OL真要优先考虑
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 楼主| 发表于 2016-3-11 18:25 来自手机 | 显示全部楼层
coimbrawu 发表于 2016-3-11 17:54
Tony Bergstrom two-year Texans deal $5.75 million, $750,000 bonus, $1.5M gted, salaries $1.125M (gtd ...

要么是WR,给奥斯维勒多个传球的选择;要么是OL,给奥斯维勒多点传球的准备时间。

看当时的选秀情况吧。
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发表于 2016-3-11 18:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 coimbrawu 于 2016-3-11 18:46 编辑
S.R.911 发表于 2016-3-11 18:25
要么是WR,给奥斯维勒多个传球的选择;要么是OL,给奥斯维勒多点传球的准备时间。

看当时的选秀情况吧 ...

其实看了Zeke的球探报告,我还真想选zeke,如果有机会的话,一个可以挡DE的HB真是太难得了(Urban说他是他教过的无球做得最好的球员),想想如果有两个一流的HB,一个阻挡能力还很不错,Osweiler的压力会小很多,德州人去年尝试冲球次数全联盟第一,如果两个高质量HB,那样效率会高很多,而且也能发挥OL开路好而传球保护差的特点(去年德州人传球保护好,但是好的球员都走了/伤了,来的/续约的都是开路好的)
https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Dra ... multigame_analysis/
WR的话,Josh Doctson和Stirling Sherpard都是不错的选择,前者是大外接,后者是槽接手,两个人都有很强的接球能力而且很少脱手,后者在有防守球员盯防下接球能力是今年最好的,前者也不错

而近端锋暂时就只有第一轮才能选到的Hunter Henry不错
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 楼主| 发表于 2016-3-11 20:20 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 S.R.911 于 2016-3-11 21:25 编辑
coimbrawu 发表于 2016-3-11 18:36
其实看了Zeke的球探报告,我还真想选zeke,如果有机会的话,一个可以挡DE的HB真是太难得了(Urban说他是 ...

看看选秀排位,再看看球队的需求,Ezek不是你想选就能选到的
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 楼主| 发表于 2016-3-12 20:21 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 S.R.911 于 2016-3-13 11:19 编辑

Lamar Miller,后Foster时代?

——休斯顿德州人休战期话题讨论,第VIII期

战鼓擂擂东风吹,
球队暂时缺跑卫。
走了阿福来米勒,
地面进攻再发威?


4年26M,保障14M,球队从海豚引进跑卫Lamar Miller,以代替裁掉的老将Arian Foster。在Foster缺席的2015赛季,球队的地面进攻不堪入目,Blue、Polk、Grimes等人都没有交出令人满意的答卷。休战期,球队经理突然开窍,相继签下野马曾经是替补差点成主力的四分卫Osweiler,以及海豚没钱续约又不贴标签的跑卫Miller。Miller的加盟,填补的了Foster缺席的空白,能够提升球队地面进攻的质量。

先看看2015赛季球队跑卫群的成绩:
Alfred Blue:16次出场9次首发,总共冲球183次,收获698码,平均每次冲球3.8码,完成2次达阵;接球15次109码1达阵。
Chris Polk:15次出场2次首发,总共冲球99次,收获334码,平均每次冲球3.4码,完成1次达阵;接球16次109码1达阵。
Jonathan Grimes:14次出场,总共冲球56次,收获282码,平均每次冲球5码,完成1次达阵;接球26次173码1达阵。
Akeem Hunt:7次出场1次首发,总共冲球17次,收获96码,平均每次冲球5.6码;接球6次39码。

对比刚被球队裁掉的明星跑卫Arian Foster,没有一个人的数据拿得出手的。于是,我们来看看新加盟球员Miller,以及Foster的数据:



为了进行对比,我们关注两位球队第二、三、四赛季的表现。即,Miller的2013~2015赛季数据,Foster的2010~2012赛季数据。冲球次数、冲球总码数、总达阵数Miller均少于Foster。从效率上看,平均每次冲球码数Miller(2680/587=4.565码)要好于Foster(4264/956=4.460码),在冲球达阵比方面,Miller平均32.6次(587/18)冲球完成一次冲球达阵,Foster平均23.3次(956/41)冲球完成一次冲球达阵。Miller的地面进攻效率,在过去两个赛季PFF冲球评分均排在前六。

Miller适合德州人的区域掩护冲球体系,目前为止保持着健康的身体状况,加上24岁(下个月将满25岁)的年龄,他在BOB的战术体系中会比在海豚获得更多的触球机会。加上Osweiler第一个赛季与新球队磨合,球队传球战术应该会相对减少,这将给Miller更多的机会来证明自己的实力。同时,Miller在接球方面也有一定的能力,2015赛季有47次接球397码2达阵(其中有一次54码接球达阵),平均接球距离达到了8.4码,2014赛季有38次接球275码1达阵,平均接距离7.2码。他的接球能力和经验或许能给Osweiler提供一定的帮助。

因此,2016赛季,Miller每场比赛应该能有20+次触球机会(冲球和接球),这大大高于在海豚时的次数。Miller在德州人的第一个赛季,很有可能就是一个千码赛季。在Foster离开之后,Miller或许能够开启一个属于自己的时代。

欢迎跟帖讨论,Lamer Miller,能够开启球队新的地面进攻时代吗?





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发表于 2016-3-13 00:05 | 显示全部楼层
4年26万?4年26M吧···

点评

手误,已改,谢谢  发表于 2016-3-13 11:19
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发表于 2016-3-13 13:27 来自手机 | 显示全部楼层
看数据阿福好可怕,要不是伤病,唉~
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发表于 2016-3-14 12:53 | 显示全部楼层
米勒的槽点:
1.他每场持球次数都不超过20次,但是依然刷出接近千码的数据,持球次数:
Correct. Carries per game in '15

20
19
19
16
15
14
13
12
12
10
9
9
7
7
7
5
但是分布严重不均,4场比赛每场均码7.5 YPC,剩下的12场每场均码3.2
2. 这四场比赛米勒说65次持球,平均16.25,刷了490码+4TD,剩余12场是129次,平均每场10.75次,刷了382码+4TD,这四个对手分别是巨人、泰坦、德州人和乌鸦
3. 被人吐槽奥布莱恩是看到他对德州人打得好就想签下他,另外工资太高

另外,奥斯维勒的一个缺点是持球时间过长容易被擒杀,所以“砖家”建议德州人的传球保护还得加强,需要选一个好的OT/OG
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发表于 2016-3-15 11:20 | 显示全部楼层
S.R.911 发表于 2016-3-12 20:21
Lamar Miller,后Foster时代?

——休斯顿德州人休战期话题讨论,第VIII期

前年成为联盟前十的跑卫,去年开季跟海豚一起低迷,但下半赛季获得更多的出场时间和自由度之后,重新爆发。毫无疑问Lamar是一个有能力的跑卫,而且在合适的体系之下很有战斗力,假如能顺利磨合的话对德州人帮助很大。德州人应该像去年一样,即使开季战绩很差,也对新的进攻组保持足够耐心。
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发表于 2016-3-15 13:48 | 显示全部楼层
BRB的这篇转会市场分析个人感觉算是比较中肯的,既指出了需求和签约的意义,也说出了背后的隐患
http://www.battleredblog.com/201 ... is-of-what-has-been
Osweiler签约有其必要性,但是他确实不是非常好,期望他变成很好那是很绝望的赌博,不过另外一方面,奥布莱恩确实能让四分卫在自己手里变好。同时今年也确实应该给Osweiler找一个备胎
米勒是还不错的签约,但是赌得有些大,好处则是不浪费选秀权
泰坦给本-琼斯的合同太贵了,而Brooks的离开难以弥补,Jeff Allen的横向移动实在是他的弱点,虽然他可以通过力量来弥补
而球队需要了K和P,则让本来最差的特勤组依然维持着很差的局面
Demps没有续约而且理应不续约,因为他的速度实在太慢,球队应该解决S的速度问题
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发表于 2016-3-15 17:06 | 显示全部楼层
有点冒险,合同太大了,希望不是三输
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 楼主| 发表于 2016-3-15 18:34 来自手机 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 S.R.911 于 2016-3-15 20:56 编辑
coimbrawu 发表于 2016-3-15 13:48
BRB的这篇转会市场分析个人感觉算是比较中肯的,既指出了需求和签约的意义,也说出了背后的隐患
http://ww ...
米勒是还不错的签约,但是赌得有些大,好处则是不浪费选秀权

以德州人选秀的尿性,浪不浪费还真的不好说
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 楼主| 发表于 2016-3-17 10:50 | 显示全部楼层
插播一条新闻:德州人从小飞机签来了自由球员安全卫 Antonio Allen 以增加二线防守的深度。

Allen 在13、14赛季首发了17场比赛,15赛季在IR名单上度过(torn Achilles tendon)。

Allen 2015年的基本工资是1.542M,前三年分别只有0.3M、0.48M、0.57M。

伤病隐患大啊。
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发表于 2016-3-17 16:48 | 显示全部楼层
S.R.911 发表于 2016-3-17 10:50
插播一条新闻:德州人从小飞机签来了自由球员安全卫 Antonio Allen 以增加二线防守的深度。

Allen 在13 ...

今天scout网站有一篇关于Miller的详细分析,有兴趣的可以看看:
http://www.scout.com/nfl/texans/ ... texans-lamar-miller
Steve Mitchell: USA Today
The Rundown: A Closer Look at Houston Texans Running Back Lamar Miller
PATRICK STARRYesterday at 10:29 AM





A comprehensive look at new Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller.

The Houston Texans took a chance on the most dynamic running back available on the free agent market in Lamar Miller. The Texans found out first hand what Miller can do if he gets any space to work with when the Texans got blown out by the Miami Dolphins in week 7 of 2015 and Miller ripped the Texans for 175 yards. A closer look at Miller’s 2015 season feels almost incomplete to the point there should be more to what was seen from him.

In 2015, it was almost a tale of two seasons for Miller, the Philbin version and the Campbell version. Each coach had different visions on what exactly to do with Miller.  


Miller was grossly underused and underutilized by the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins made it clear that they had little clue on how to use the speedy back. Joe Philbin and then offensive coordinator Bill Lazor thought Miller was no more than just a back who primarily worked out of the gun, with a small package of plays, while Dan Campbell and his offensive coordinator Zac Taylor almost stubbornly made Miller learn how to operate in-between the tackles when he took over as the head coach. Campbell lined Miller up in single back sets and gave him the ball to run inside the tackles.  

Here are some of the more interesting notes from last season in regard to Lamar Miller.

The Dolphins took 1,031 offensive snaps.
Miller was in for 629 offensive snaps (61.0%) and had 241 total touches (38%) during those snaps. For comparison, Alfred Blue, the Texans leading rusher, was in for 368 offensive snaps (31.1%) and he had 198 total touches. Blue touched the ball 54% of the times he was in the game for the Texans.

Comparatively speaking, Miller was getting less touches than Blue, which makes it hard to understand what the Dolphins were thinking with their utilization of a talent like Miller.

Formations Miller Was Featured In
FormationTotal TouchesTotal Yards
1-Back Gun133631
2-Back Gun13
Pistol 232
1-Back Under Center 92510
2-Back Under Center740
Slot417
Split Out Wide235


Miller In A Single Back Set
Miller In Gun
NFL

Miller In the Slot
NFL

Miller Lined Up Wide
NFL
Positives About Miller
  • We know about his speed and, if he gets to the offensive tackles outside hip, you can go ahead an expect some yards to be gained. The way that Miller ran the ball out of the gun, if he could get to the edge, Miller was flipping the field in a hurry.


  • A plus red zone runner, Miller has a knack to get into the end zone and, when the Dolphins on the goal line, his number was called often. In 10 chances (7 yards or less), Miller had five rushing touchdowns. In situations where it was three yards or less to score, Miller scored four touchdowns on six attempts. The majority of those attempts came out of the shotgun.


  • A plus screen player, when Miller is able to get into that passing game, the screen pass is one of his best weapons. He has a good feel to disguise the play and then get north and south quickly. This element of his game complements his pass catching ability, which gives the offense multiple threats with a single player.

  • Ball security. In 241 total touches, Miller fumbled once (recovered by his own teammate) and dropped one pass on a route in the flats. Miller has shown he can run swing, out routes in the flats, drag routes when releasing to the middle of the field and the ability to run go routes like a wide receiver.
Screen Game
Miller has a knack for making big plays out of the screen game and it has to do with how well he sells the pass blocking look. He is able to step up, making it appear he is ready for pass pro then he works in unison with his blockers to get them in front while he receives the pass. In this play, Miller is able to set up his block and cut back against the grain when it is clear the Jaguars have him boxed in. He uses the defense's flow against them and cuts back across field to turn a negative play into a 12 yard gain.
Last season Miller caught screen passes for 54, 26,  22, 16, 12, 7 and 6 yards.


To The Edge
If there is one thing that Miller has a feel for is finding his way to the edges of the defense. Miller struggles inside the tackles and we discuss that further in Miller's negatives. Miller has a knack for finding his way to the edges and using his offensive tackles as his landmark. He finds ways to get to the edge and if he does expect good things to happen.

In the play below Miller is running outside zone waiting to plant and get upfield. He has shown two distinct attributes when he runs the outside zone, he is looking for both of his tackles to make his cuts. If he can find a crease to the play side, he can get north and south in a hurry. He is not like Arian Foster when he runs the zone, Foster had the ability to sift through the line with his eyes and pick a crease anywhere within the defense. Miller is a different type of zone runner, out the front door behind the play side tackle or looking to cut off the backside tackle. He lacks the feel and patience in this zone scheme to make big plays up the middle.

If the defense does not slow down Miller or make him chop his feet, get ready for good things to happen. The play below is an example of when Miller takes his approach into the line of scrimmage and gets into the second level. Like most NFL backs, if they can get into the second level, an offense can move the ball. Miller just has the home run hitting speed if you miss tackles on him.

Negatives About Miller
  • Miller has so much untapped potential and more to learn as a running back, especially how to display patience and read his blocks to maximize himself as a runner. The Dolphins have almost done Miller an injustice by working him mainly out of the gun. Despite his small role in the Dolphins offense, he was still able to be quite productive as a player.


  • Miller was primarily a gun back that ran outside zone, one cut and go, and he will have to learn to run out of single back sets. At the beginning of the season, Miller would chop his steps prior to getting to the line of scrimmage, slowing him down. He looked uncomfortable in single back sets and it was clear with his lack of production in these offensive sets. The Dolphins did not really put Miller in single back sets, consistently, until week 13 against the Baltimore Ravens. It was one of the games where Miller actually looked like a running back reading and reacting to blocks. He has to prove he can do that for more that a two-game stretch. It is still a work in progress.

  • Miller was pegged early by the Dolphins that he was a back with a specific role, so the question remains whether he can handle a full workload. The reasoning the Dolphins had for this move was never revealed but it is something to watch when he hits the field for the Texans. If he came to Houston to be the lead back, is he going to be able to handle an increase of snaps, the expectations of learning a new playbook and potential hits on his frame? This is yet to be seen but that will be something to watch in his first season with the Texans.

Needs To Clean Up His Pass Pro
This is the part where Miller needs polishing, pass protection. If he can pass protect at a good level, he will get all the work he wants on game days.
In the example below, Miller has a habit of letting the rusher to come to him instead of going to meet the rusher at the line of scrimmage. This allows the quarterback to have a nice pocket. Miller needs to keep his shoulder square to the line of scrimmage but taking on a big defensive lineman, he is holding his ground.


Outside Perspective
The Dolphins definitely thought Miller could be an every down back; the only problem was that we never gave him the ball. Each game he had 13 or more carries, the Dolphins won. I was a huge fan of Lamar, but I also did not like the way he would dance behind the line of scrimmage instead of hitting his first open hole. I think he was a product of the offensive system we ran, which was a lot of sideline-to-sideline running instead of down hill running. The Texans got a great workhorse and every down back with Miller. I was sad to see him go. He's going to be a beast if given the ball and blocked for.

Absolutely. He did that some while at the university of Miami. He's a complete back in my opinion. The only thing he struggles with is picking up blitzes as a blocker but he got a lot better in that aspect last season. I think he's going to explode in the Texans offense, especially in the passing game. He's so dynamic in the open field. He'll need to learn to run between the tackles a little more, but if he gets even a foot of room he can break a run on any play. (Eric Roddy, Dolphins Report)





Lamar Miller Looking For a Fresh StartLamar Miller is ready for a new start in his new home with the Houston Texans.


by Patrick Starr
[color=rgb(251, 208, 50) !important]State of the Texans
Friday at 9:12 AM





Lamar Miller is a known quantity. He speedy, a solid receiver and beats defenders with given ability. There is so much more to Miller that has not been touched with the skills set he has. He has shows that he can split out as the slot or wide, taking advantage of slower linebackers. The Dolphins showed bits and pieces of what Miller could do as an offensive threat, but never stuck with it long enough. If anything, they gave a glimpse to the Texans on what Miller can do and how he can maximize an offense.
The Texans are banking on a player who has not been used to his maximum potential and the team is ready to open the door for Miller to create issues for defenses.
The Texans’ offense wants running backs to be focal points of the offense; the ability to turn a two-yard check down into a big gain plus the presence of speed to get defenders to respect what is on the field.
The time is now for Miller and it is up to the Texans to polish off the raw football player Miller still is.



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发表于 2016-3-17 16:57 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 coimbrawu 于 2016-3-17 17:52 编辑

另外,结合德州人自由球员市场签约之后,现在的选秀需求有:WR、TE、OL(OT,OG/C)、DL、ILB、S、K、P,结合最近两年的球员身价和之前9博翻译的选秀经验,个人认为需求排名(排名有先后)
5-tech DE (很多好苗子的一年)
WR (对比DE,也许WR的价值会小一些,毕竟是WR较弱的一年)
OL  (今年的OT好的不少,OG/C则差一点,OG/C二三轮也能选到)
NT (今年的NT特别多,第二第三轮感觉都能抓到不错的NT)
TE (虽然BRB的帖子里TE是最多人选的,这届可以选的真不多,不过TE的市场本来就比较浅,感觉起码不值得首轮)
SS (这届的S真是很多)
长期培养的QB(比如Hackenberg掉到四五轮的情况下)
ILB(仅在Jaylon Smith在四五轮可选的情况下)

所以德州人现在的选秀策略真的可以BPA(Best player available),挑选剩下的球员中最好的,也相信德州人的首轮签继续给我们带来惊喜
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发表于 2016-3-18 09:57 | 显示全部楼层
在受尽了阿福这么多年蹂躏之后,谁敢说米勒这个铁公鸡开启新时代,不过签了大o和米勒,还是跪求我德轻虐
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